Bitcoin has recently faced pressure, dropping nearly 6% from its high of $124,000 to below $117,000. This decline is influenced by various factors, including the impact of the Ghost Month in Asia and technical signals.
Impact of Asia-Centric Ghost Month on Bitcoin
The period known as Ghost Month, spanning from August 23 to September 21, is viewed as inauspicious in Asia. It is typically characterized by a reduction in risk appetite and increased profit-taking. Since 2017, average declines during this time have been 21.7%. If this trend holds, Bitcoin could drop to the $100,000–$105,000 range. Seasonal psychology and technical patterns may intensify the pressure.
Signs of Sustained Demand
In terms of Blockchain indicators, there is evidence of resilient absorption capacity against selling pressure. The Coinbase Premium Index hit a monthly peak on August 14, indicating increased demand in the US. Likewise, South Korea's Kimchi Premium has returned to positive territory, suggesting revived local interest. The number of BTC sold at a loss by short-term investors was limited to 16,800 units, significantly lower than the 48,000 BTC seen in previous corrections.
Market Awaits Recovery
Technically, the $116,000–$117,000 region serves as a critical support level for Bitcoin. Spot purchases and futures positions are concentrated here, suggesting the potential for a rapid recovery if this floor holds. Long-term analysts suggest that this summer's downturn might lay the groundwork for a significant recovery in the autumn, supported by institutional demand and ongoing capital flows.
In conclusion, the Bitcoin market remains uncertain, influenced by Ghost Month pressure and mixed demand signals. Investors should monitor developments and technical levels closely.
