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Impact of Economic Signals on Cryptocurrency Markets

Apr 29, 2024

Amid concerns about high inflation and weak GDP growth, the expectation that the FED will maintain current interest rates has led to selling pressure on Bitcoin prices. This past weekend, the cryptocurrency market saw widespread pressure, with Bitcoin experiencing a 2.2% price correction to fall below $62,500. Altcoins faced even greater selling pressure, with corrections ranging from 4% to 10% among the top ten altcoins.

Future Outlook for Bitcoin and Altcoins

This week, key economic events are set to unfold, starting with the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on May 1. Analysts are projecting a 95.6% likelihood of the FED keeping interest rates unchanged. Additionally, the U.S. unemployment rate for April will be released on May 3. Despite weaker GDP data indicating a slowing economy and high Core PCE figures pointing to persistent inflation concerns, expectations for a rate cut in the U.S. have significantly diminished.

Market sentiment has shifted to project only one rate cut in 2024, a stark contrast to initial predictions of seven cuts earlier this year. However, uncertainty surrounding the FED's interest rate policy is contributing to selling pressure in the cryptocurrency market, particularly impacting Bitcoin prices.

Evolving Trends in the Crypto Market

Recent market updates reveal a notable change in the crypto sphere, with decreased volatility in leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). The drop in Bitcoin's volatility from 70% to 50% has prompted reflection among investors, raising questions about whether this decline signifies a temporary pause or a permanent shift in market sentiment. In particular, the increased downside skewness in Ethereum's risk returns to 13% has heightened market uncertainties.

Focus is currently on the upcoming launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong. This development could attract institutional capital from Asia to the crypto market and generate new momentum. The successful introduction of these ETFs is anticipated to increase confidence in cryptocurrencies and draw more institutional investors into the market.

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