On August 1, over 19 million Pi tokens were released, leading to a significant decline in their value. This article examines the causes of these developments and provides a technical analysis of the situation.
Token Unlock and Market Reaction
On August 1, more than 19 million Pi tokens entered circulation as part of a larger release of 72 million tokens for the week. This influx increased the total circulating supply to 7.76 billion. The market reacted swiftly, with Pi's price falling over 13% in the past 24 hours and trading volume surging by 82% to $157.7 million.
Technical Analysis and Current Situation
The technical situation remains precarious. The RSI has dropped to 26.59, indicating an oversold market, yet no bullish divergence has formed. The price has broken below key Fibonacci support at $0.389, sliding toward the $0.35 zone. The MACD histogram deepened into negative territory, confirming accelerating bearish momentum. Analysts warn that without a strong reversal, Pi may slip further towards $0.30–$0.32.
Prospects and Support for Pi
The downturn isn’t isolated to Pi. Overall altcoin market sentiment remains weak, with the Altcoin Season Index at just 36 as Bitcoin dominance rises. Pi’s correlation with BTC stands at -0.27, showing it's moving out of sync with broader crypto trends. The lack of Tier-1 exchange listings, such as Binance or Coinbase, continues to cap liquidity and limit institutional interest. This combination of oversupply, weak market sentiment, and structural liquidity constraints has created a negative feedback loop—falling prices push miners and traders to exit, which in turn fuels more selling. Traders are closely watching the $0.32–$0.35 support range. If this zone holds, Pi could stabilize into a consolidation phase; however, a clean break lower risks triggering a sharper panic-driven selloff.
The unlocking of Pi tokens has led to a significant price drop, driven by oversupply, weak market sentiment, and limited liquidity. The coming days will be critical for maintaining key support levels.
