The value of Solana has dropped significantly today, falling by 9.25% to its lowest point in two weeks at $168. This decrease is part of a broader negative trend in the cryptocurrency market, which saw an overall 3.8% decrease on April 5.

One of the main reasons for SOL's price decrease is the uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve and reports of transaction failures on the Solana blockchain. Recent data from Dune Analytics shows a notable increase in memecoin transaction failures on the Solana network, with over 75% of non-vote transactions failing on April 4.

CEO of Helius, Mert Mumtaz, disputes this claim and attributes the majority of failed transactions to "bot spam." Despite the disagreement over the transaction failure data, the rumors alone have impacted SOL's performance, causing it to underperform compared to the broader crypto market on April 5.

Moreover, SOL's price decline today is in line with significant drops in its top memecoins like Bonk (BONK) and Dogwifhat (WIF), which decreased by approximately 13.2% and 9% respectively in the last 24 hours. The newly-launched memecoin Cat in a Dogs World (MEW) also experienced a dramatic 30% drop during the same period.

Solana's correlation with its memecoin projects has recently strengthened, with its daily correlation coefficient with BONK reaching 0.83 and with WIF at 0.53 on April 5, indicating their significant impact on SOL's market dynamics.

U.S. Treasury futures data as of April 5 suggest that the Federal Reserve might postpone interest rate cuts until September, with traders expecting a more conservative rate cut of about 67 basis points for 2024. This change in predictions follows improved data from the U.S. labor market, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.8% in March.

Technically, Solana's price drop today fits within its current ascending triangle pattern, usually seen as a bullish sign. This pattern hints at a possible rebound for SOL towards $200 by the end of April, with a breakout potentially pushing its price to $240. However, a fall below the lower trendline of the triangle could invalidate this setup, guiding SOL towards its 50-day exponential moving average near $160 by the end of April.