JP Morgan's latest analysis presents a unique perspective on the future of the US dollar, diverging from the prevailing views on Wall Street. According to the results published in the material, the bank's currency team anticipates a managed decline for the dollar rather than an impending crisis, suggesting a more measured approach to the currency's trajectory.
JP Morgan's Bearish Outlook for the US Dollar
Led by Meera Chandan and Arindam Sandilya, JP Morgan's currency team forecasts a bearish outlook for the US dollar, predicting a decline of approximately 3% through mid-2026. Currently, the Dollar Index (DXY) stands at around 97.75, reflecting a significant drop of about 8.1% over the past year.
Future Projections and Economic Indicators
While many major banks expect the DXY to fluctuate between 92 and 100, JP Morgan highlights that the dollar's future will be marked by managed weakness rather than a catastrophic breakdown. The team believes that high-yielding currencies will absorb most of the losses, and they are prepared to adopt a bullish stance if economic data shows significant improvement, potentially delaying any easing measures from the Federal Reserve.
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